RO8 Group A Preview: Rogue, GuMiho, Solar, Maru
Start time: Wednesday, Jun 11 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)
by Wax
It’s all gas, no breaks for competitive StarCraft II as we blaze into the Code S RO8 just days after BGE Stara Zagora. An unpredictable RO12 saw both Cure and SHIN go out early, and now it’s time to see if there will be more upsets to come.
DreamHack Dallas was a statement tournament from the Korean scene, reminding everyone of the deep roster of GSL players who are one inspired day away from making a deep playoff run. Unfortunately for Rogue, he was unable to partake in this carnivale of Korean SC2, and only added to his string of disappointing results with a top 12 finish. Shortly after Dallas, Rogue laid an even bigger egg in the EWC Korea qualifier, getting eliminated early on by heavy underdog Ryung. The only adequate result Rogue has put up lately was his qualifying run for this season of Code S, where he beat Zoun, Percival, Creator, and SHIN—solid, but nothing to celebrate.
As with his Italian counterpart Reynor, fans should start feeling antsy about the recovery trajectory for the former world champion. The scene has never been kinder to players coming back from military service or extended breaks—a player like herO has become even better in his career’s second act—but a full return to form is hardly guaranteed. With every passing match, it’s feeling more like Rogue will top out at the level of a returnee like Classic—a non-contender who can still play championship-level StarCraft for a series or two.
And that might be the optimistic view! Like some other fans, I probably read a little too deeply into Rogue’s 3-0 over Clem in an off-season cup, wanting to believe it signalled the revival of one of the game’s legends. However, Rogue’s overall body of work over the last few months has just not been that impressive. At the time of writing, Aligulac.com only sees Rogue as the 17th best player in the world, flanked by SHIN and Bunny. I still have some lingering optimism about Rogue’s chances of making a run to EWC, but it’s fading very fast.
Rogue has drawn GuMiho as his initial group opponent, which I imagine he greeted with equal parts anticipation and dread. GuMiho hasn’t been an especially consistent player throughout his career, but his up-and-down nature feels especially pronounced as of late. He began the EWC season strong with a top four finish in Code S Season 1, only to fall out in the RO16 of DH Dallas. He seemed to bounce back with a solid RO12 performance in Code S Season 2, but was subsequently culled from the EWC Korea qualifier by Ryung (we rarely get a chance to write about Ryung lately, but it’s amusing that he eliminated both GuMiho and Rogue from the EWC qualifier). Overall, I think the average version of GuMiho is a player that Rogue should find quite beatable, but the peaks and valleys of his play make him a thorny opponent.
What makes GuMiho especially tricky as of late is his revival of mech. The niche composition goes in and out of fashion depending on the meta, and GuMiho has always been at the forefront of trying to push it into viability at the pro level. He has made a real breakthrough as of late, and he made mech his central strategy as he defeated ByuN and SHIN in the RO12. His ZvT battlemech seems to be quite vexing in particular, and we saw how both Reynor and SHIN were unable to wrap their heads around how to make a proper counter-composition in separate GSL seasons. Rogue and the other Group A players will have theorycrafted how to take on GuMiho’s mech, but I doubt they will have actually practiced against anyone who can execute it quite like GuMiho.
The other half of the group features two of of conquering heroes from DreamHack Dallas: champion Maru and runner-up Solar. Neither player had played especially well in the months leading up to DreamHack—in Maru’s case, you might even have said he was downright terrible. However, at Dallas, they brought the “lock in for EWC” narratives to fruition, getting right back into peak form.
For Solar, that means he’s back to being a darkhorse GSL title contender, trailing just behind the big two of Maru and herO. His Dallas run really helped illuminate those credentials, as he took down several solid players in Ryung, GuMiho, Trigger, Reynor, and SHIN. Solar’s only losses came to Serral (a close 2-3 defeat) and Maru (1-4 against his eternal nemesis), but you can hardly fault him for those. Convincing wins against Zoun and Creator in the RO12 helped assuage some off-season worries about Solar’s ZvP, leaving me to wonder what his ceiling might be. As for now, it’s hard to see him beating either Maru or herO in the playoffs, but maybe he’ll be able to change my mind in his initial match…
The fact that Solar versus Maru keeps happening is evidence that StarCraft gods exist, and is also evidence that they are evil. The greatest GSL player ever capped off a fantastic DreamHack run with a 4-1 beatdown of his personal punching bag, which was the ultimate confirmation that normalcy had been restored to StarCraft II.
If Solar’s Dallas run reaffirmed him as a fringe GSL title contender, then Maru’s championship restored his status of being a cut above everyone in Korea. Maru scored one-sided victories against Creator, ShoWTimE, Classic, and Solar, with herO being the only one to push him to five games. Basically, it was like a typical Code S title run with a touch of Deutsche eigenart. While the lack of a Maru vs Serral/Clem/Reynor match meant that many questions were left unanswered in a global context, as far as the GSL is concerned, we have to consider Maru the favorite to win Code S Season 2.
The only concern for Maru is that he doesn’t have the desperation factor of some other GSL participants. The ~$10,000 for first place in GSL is nothing to scoff at (it will probably end up somewhere in that range once crowdfunding is accounted for), but that’s still less than the minimum prize players are guaranteed by making it to EWC. Depending on how the rest of the GSL plays out, either GuMiho or Rogue could lock in their qualification by simply advancing from this group, meaning they’re likely to come in with maximum preparation and focus. If Maru rests on his laurels, there’s a small chance that he could suffer another GSL RO8 elimination.
Predictions
This group is tough to call due to the EWC incentives listed above. While there’s a certain baseline competitiveness that everyone brings to GSL Code S, Rogue and GuMiho simply have more to play for than Solar and Maru. On a strictly financial basis, these RO8 matches are more important to them than winning a GSL finals.
Since Maru’s “okay” is better than most players’ best, I still think he’ll end up advancing. However, I’m going to say that Solar bows out early, and that a desperate Rogue will all-in his way to the RO4.
Rogue 2 – 0 GuMiho
Maru 2 – 0 Solar
Maru 2 – 1 Rogue
GuMiho 2 – 1 Solar
Rogue 2 – 1 GuMiho
Maru and Rogue to advance.