I will be looking out on the Switch 2 to see if adoption will really be slower. The analyst used hardware power and backwards compatability to make that claim. I think it is still too soon to predict what the Nintendo Switch 2 will be like because, for now, we only know how it looks and not what the features will be available. Since it is a Nintendo system, I expect it not to be just an upgrade in performance since every other Nintendo hardware was fundamentally different, even if they somehow looked similar. I am thinking of the 3DS compared to the NDS.
50 million subscribers is doable for GamePass. The last update we received was when the service reached 34 million subscribers after Microsoft merged the Gold subscribers with GamePass. That update came in February 2024. Last November, Microsoft announced that COD in Gamepass gave them a record number of subscribers. We haven’t gotten those numbers as yet, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect a few million new subscribers. Especially since almost no one bought the game on Xbox.
There are also some other major releases expected this year, such as Doom: The Dark Ages and the highly anticipated Expedition 33. Those games should have a positive impact on the subscriber numbers, especially if Microsoft introduces an ad-based tier for GamePass as people continue to struggle more in this economy.