Here’s How Likely Each Best Picture Oscar Nominee Is To Win

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Anora is the kind of movie that comes out of nowhere and completely floors you. Directed by Sean Baker, it follows a young Brooklyn stripper named Ani (played by Mikey Madison) who gets swept up in a whirlwind romance with the son of a Russian oligarch. What starts as a fast-paced, wild love story quickly spirals into something much darker when his powerful family steps in, determined to erase her from their son’s life. It’s gritty, funny, heartbreaking, and so full of life that you almost forget you’re watching a movie—it just feels that real. That’s probably why it pulled off that jaw-dropping Critics’ Choice Awards win for Best Picture, despite not winning in any other category: It’s the ultimate underdog story, both on and off the screen.

If there’s one scene that makes Anora a serious Oscar contender, it’s the explosive confrontation between Anora and her husband’s family when they try to annul their marriage. It’s the kind of moment that sticks with you—the tension, the raw emotion, and Mikey Madison delivering what might be the performance of her career. She’s not just acting; she’s living in that moment, shifting from desperation to fury to defiant resilience in the span of minutes. The cinematography keeps it intimate, letting every flicker of emotion hit you like a punch. You can almost feel the Academy voters nodding in approval. If Anora wins Best Picture, it won’t be because it had the biggest budget or the flashiest campaign—it’ll be because it’s the kind of film that makes you feel something, and in the end, that’s what truly matters.

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