The Switch has more first-party games that sold at least a million copies than any other console in history. The Switch boasts 72 first-party games that have cleared that mark, but it also owns the top three, with the DS (55) and 3DS (50) in second and third place. Even if Nintendo has historically been better than the competition at publishing must-have games for its consoles, the Switch is still an outlier. These numbers track with a trend that we’ve long seen play out with Switch releases: the console is a rising tide that lifts historically niche franchises to their all-time best sales.
The Switch has undoubtedly been a hitmaker, elevating great games to great sales. Switch owners are hungry, and Nintendo consistently delivers. But as the Switch nears the end of its life cycle, I’m starting to wonder if the Switch 2 will be able to repeat the same feat.
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The Switch’s Undeniable Sales Boost
Before we get into that, though, let’s look at some examples. Mario Kart has never been a sales slouch. Mario Kart 7 and 8 were the best-selling game on the 3DS and Wii U, Mario Kart 64, Double Dash!!, and Wii were the second-best-selling games on their respective consoles, Mario Kart DS was the third-best-selling game on the DS, and Super Mario Kart and Mario Kart: Super Circuit came in fourth on SNES and GBA.
Mario and karts are, historically, a winning combination.
Still, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe on Switch absolutely obliterated the rest of the series’ numbers. Mario Kart Wii was the top-selling entry in the franchise until that point, with 37.38 million units sold. But Deluxe more than doubled its sales with 67.35 million, becoming Nintendo’s second-best-selling game of all time and the fifth-best-selling game of all time.
Mario Kart is an extreme example, but just about every Nintendo franchise has been bolstered by the Switch effect. Niche series got their best ever sales on the console. Metroid Dread was the best-selling game in the long-running, but commercially inert, sci-fi action-adventure series, shifting 3.07 million copies in comparison to previous champ Metroid Prime’s 2.84 million.
Successful series, like The Legend of Zelda, got their biggest wins, too. Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom are the number one and number two top-selling games in the franchise’s history. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Animal Crossing: New Horizons, and Fire Emblem: Three Houses rode the same phenomenon to the top of the heap.
Can The Switch 2 Repeat The Rising Tide?
But there are a few factors that could prevent the Switch 2 from having the same impact. When the Switch debuted in 2017, it was the first of its kind. It introduced the idea of playing console-quality games on the go. Eight years later, it isn’t new anymore. Competitors like the Steam Deck, which offer better performance and a wider range of games, have eaten up some of its market share. You can’t surprise people twice with the same trick. Plus, the Switch 2 will have to compete with the massive catalogue already available on its predecessor.
But the Switch 2 does benefit from the same console consolidation that buoyed the Switch. From 1989 through 2017, Nintendo was always maintaining both a home console and a handheld. Now both sets of developers are making games for one console. On one console, you got Super Mario Odyssey and Super Mario Bros. Wonder; Tears of the Kingdom and Echoes of Wisdom. Barring the unforeseen announcement of the 4DS — and with Nintendo you can never truly rule anything out — that’s an advantage the Switch 2 will continue to leverage.
None of that would matter, though, if the Switch hadn’t sold like gangbusters. It’s Nintendo’s second-best-selling system (trailing the DS by three million units) and the third-best-selling system of all-time. For the Switch 2 games to sell better than Switch games, the Switch 2 will need to sell better than the Switch. That seems like a big ask, but if the games stay great, it might just be possible.
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