2025 Is A Make Or Break Year For Xbox

2025 Is A Make Or Break Year For Xbox
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Xbox ended 2024 with a bang. Or, more accurately, a whip crack.

Indiana Jones and the Great Circle launched in December, the liminal space of each year’s release calendar. Too late to be considered for Game of the Year awards, too early to be the unexpected January banger that takes everyone by surprise. Though its reception was more muted than a different release date might have allowed, it has found an audience.

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On a recent earnings call, Microsoft stated that the game had been played by more than four million players. Those are good numbers (even if it is a little tricky to suss out how big of a financial success they actually make the game thanks to its availability on Game Pass), and they give Xbox a strong footing as it heads into 2025. It will need it.

2025 Could Be Xbox’s Big Transition Year

Character fighting enemies in the forest in Fable.

Aside from Indiana Jones’ success, Xbox was in a deeply weird place in 2024. The year began with fans melting down about whether Microsoft would even stay in the console game at all, as it shifted its focus away from exclusives. Not long after, the company brought games like Hi-Fi Rush and Grounded, which were previously Xbox exclusive, to Switch and PS5 before dropping the Hi-Fi team altogether.

As Xbox’s apparent strategy became clearer, it felt like we were waiting for the other shoe to drop. Were there any limitations around which games could make the leap? Surely big deal franchises like Halo and Gears of War would remain exclusive, right?

When we say that an Xbox game is ‘exclusive’, that necessarily includes PC, since all Xbox games hit both platforms.

Wrong. Or, at least, Phil Spencer wouldn’t rule it out. The Xbox head said that there were “no red lines” around which games were or were not eligible for a port, including those flagship franchises. He later said that Starfield wasn’t off limits either. With Indiana Jones and Forza Horizon 5 both coming to PS5 this spring, and The Outer Worlds 2 set for a multiplatform launch later this year, it’s increasingly difficult to see Xbox returning to its former position as a console manufacturer that could rival Sony and Nintendo.

Now Is The Time To Get Out Of The Console Game

As Xbox heads into a packed 2025, it’s in a good position to change its business. It no longer matters much as a console manufacturer, but it has a stellar line-up of games set for release. In the first five months of the year, Xbox has several big games that, if it plays its cards right, can serve as pivot points, moving the company away from its role as a hardware manufacturer that also offers services to being a service provider, first and foremost. That will mean fully pivoting away from exclusives, and making its games (and, crucially, Game Pass) available everywhere that people play games.

Avowed is an early opportunity to do just that. Obsidian’s fantasy RPG has previewed incredibly positively, and if it reviews just as well, it gives Xbox a win at the beginning of the year. And, if Xbox keeps to the same schedule it set with Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, Avowed could reasonably get a PS5 port out by the end of the year. Then, Xbox keeps the heavy hitters coming throughout the year. South of Midnight looks like it has the potential to be a breakout double-A hit, but Fable is the big exclusive that will have everyone rushing to their nearest Xbox-capable device.

Those games are Xbox exclusives (or, at least, are expected to be in Fable’s case), but a few of Microsoft’s big games are multiplatform. Doom: The Dark Ages and The Outer Worlds 2 will both launch on Xbox, PC, and PS5, as will the next Call of Duty — which is in a league all its own. This seems to be Xbox’s approach for its heaviest hitters, so why not make it the approach for everything?

The cornerstones are the games Xbox is actually publishing, but the games that are merely available on Game Pass are important, too. Last month’s Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector, March’s Atomfall, and April’s Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 will all likely be talked about throughout the year, and each conversation functions as a billboard for Game Pass.

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The result is that more than half of the games I’m excited to play this year will be on Game Pass on Day One. For the first time in years, Xbox is delivering the games, not just promising that they’ll have them at some point down the road.

Xbox doesn’t seem committed to doing the things it takes to be competitive as a console manufacturer anymore, but it does have a great line–up of games. Why not seize the opportunity to exit the console game from a position of strength, with the momentum that comes from having a bunch of great games? 2025 seems like as good a time as any to go all-in on Game Pass.

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