The Nintendo Switch 2 was revealed this week, and we didn’t learn much about when it would come out or how much it will cost, but that may not be an issue.
“I don’t believe launch pricing will really matter,” Circana games lead Mat Piscatella tells us. “Early adopters of new Nintendo hardware aren’t very price-sensitive, so as long as the launch price isn’t some egregious amount it’ll sell. And, of course, prices can be lowered over time. But we’ll see.”
The original Nintendo Switch has sold almost 150 million units, and it was much cheaper than the PS5 or Xbox Series X when it launched, so the same may well be true of the Switch 2 and the eventual PS6 and Xbox-whatever-it-will-be-called-this-time.
“Right now, I have Switch 2 selling around 4.3 million units US in the 2025 calendar year,” says Piscatella. “Call it ballpark 14-17 million worldwide in calendar 2025. Of course, first calendar year sales are traditionally limited to the number of units that are made and where those units are sent, so we’ll have to see how production is ramped up for Switch 2.”
If the launch titles are good, people will certainly buy the console just for those. It already looks like Mario Kart 9 will be ready day one. I bought a 3DS just to play Pokemon X & Y, so we shouldn’t underestimate the power of a good exclusive.
That’s a far cry from what the original Switch has managed to sell, but Piscatella doesn’t believe its successor will do as well. “Switch 2 can (and I expect it to) be a massive success. But I also don’t expect it to reach Switch. It’s tough to forecast for an outlier. It could happen, but it’s not likely,” he tells us.
While Piscatella doesn’t seem fazed by the lack of details surrounding the Switch 2 at the moment, Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior market analyst at Matsui Securities, believes this is part of the reason Nintendo’s stock price fell after the announcement. “Without these details you can’t establish earnings forecasts,” Kubota says.
To keep up to date with all the latest on the upcoming console, check out our Nintendo Switch 2 spotlight.