Pokemon TCG Prices Increase Up To 150 Percent In Three Months

Summary

• Pokemon TCG prices have skyrocketed, with cards increasing by 42%, and sealed products by 27% on average.
• Investors, scalpers, and flippers are driving the price hikes, causing scarcity and inflating costs.
• Poke-Influencers on platforms like Whatnot are exacerbating the issue by selling at inflated prices, impacting the hobby negatively.

Early last year, the Pokemon TCG was struggling. Stores were unable to shift stock, pre-orders and sales had dropped by up to 60 percent, fire sales took place with stores having to sell products for a “lower than the price we have to pay our suppliers,” and collector sentiment was at an all-time low.

It was a worrying time for the TCG, as I detailed in my report for DualShockers at the time. Little under a year later, that report couldn’t be further from the current state of the collectible card game. Prices are skyrocketing, stock is scarce, and scalpers are running riot.

The Pokemon TCG Is, Once Again, Becoming A Nightmare For Collectors

I pulled out the prices of 25 of the most expensive cards from the previous Pokemon generation, Sword & Shield, from October 6, 2024, comparing them to the prices three months later, on January 6, 2024. The difference is staggering.

The infamous Moonbreon card is one of the biggest risers over the last three months, jumping from $975 to $1,400.

Over a three-month period, these 25 cards increased by an average of 42 percent, according to Pokemon tracking app Collectr. If you were to have purchased them all ahead of October 6, you’d have been looking at around $4831; if you wanted to buy them now, you’re looking at roughly $6868.

The infamous Moonbreon card is one of the biggest risers over the last three months, jumping from $975 to $1,400, a 45 percent increase. Alongside this, cards from the Crown Zenith set have seen an enormous spike, with Mewtwo VSTAR, Arceus VSTAR, and Giratina VSTAR each roughly doubling in price. You can see the full results from our Sword & Shield card analysis below.

Following the single cards, I checked the prices of sealed Sword & Shield products and, no surprise, there were huge increases on the secondary market.

While not as drastic as the cards on their own, the average sealed Sword & Shield product (including all Elite Trainer Boxes, Pokemon Center Elite Trainer boxes, Booster Boxes, and both the 151 and Charizard Ultra Premium Collection) has gone up by 27 percent.

Here, Fusion Strike has seen the most significant increase, with Booster Boxes from the set increasing by a whopping 115 percent, and Elite Trainer Boxes and their Pokemon Center exclusive counterparts rising by 49 and 74 percent, respectively.

While some of the increases in Sword & Shield cards and products can be attributed to the fact that the products are now out of print, the same can’t be said for many of Scarlet & Violet’s cards, which are also seeing a similar eye-watering pattern.

There is a suggestion that a selection of cards are having their prices artificially manipulated, with individuals or groups buying out all of the stock and then listing them for higher prices. Based on the data, that theory is hard to argue with.

I looked at a selection of 16 cards from the Scarlet & Violet era to try and figure out what was going on, and found these cards had risen by an average of 84 percent. Of course, 16 is a small sample size when over 2,000 cards have been released during the ScVi window, but almost every card of note has seen an increase of some description over the last three months.

In particular, Mew ex, Gardevoir ex, and Charizard ex from Paldean Fates have increased by 128 percent, but smaller, less “desirable” cards have also seen significant rises.

Cleffa from Obsidian Flames and Marill from Paldea Evolved are two examples of this, increasing by 218 percent and 235 percent, respectively. It’s here where the price-gouging accusations start to make more sense.

These are two cards that have nice art but are no different to many others from Scarlet and Violet. Cleffa would have cost $6 just three short months ago, and it’s now selling for almost $20. Marill would have been under $10, and it’s now more than $33. It’s all a little fishy.

So, What’s Actually Happening?

Based on my knowledge, research, and speaking to the Pokemon TCG community and store owners, there are a number of factors that have come into play, whipping up a perfect storm.

The Pokemon TCG Pocket Effect

Arguably, the least significant impact of the recent price increases and product scarcity comes from the release of Pokemon TCG Pocket.

Millions of users have downloaded the mobile collectible card game, many of whom are getting their first taste of opening Pokemon TCG packs. This is likely to have a knock-on effect, with them wanting to open some physical packs, but this has a negligible impact on pricing.

These first-time pack openers are likely to be starting small, opening a handful of packs at most, leaving plenty of stock on the shelf, and, most importantly, the more expensive stuff alone. Aside from a couple fewer packs at your LGS, this is a non-issue.

New Expansion Frenzy

The Pokemon TCG last experienced a surge like this in 2021, around the game’s 25th anniversary. A flurry of desirable expansions were released around that time, and coupled with the nostalgia of the Celebrations set, popularity exploded. Something similar is definitely happening today.

The Pokemon Company isn’t stupid; it would have been aware that product was struggling to sell at the start of the Scarlet & Violet era, and would have course-corrected, which is what we’re seeing today.

The TCG has hit another peak in interest due to the recent sets and upcoming sets.

The two most recent expansions are focused on some of the series’ most popular Pokemon, and that looks set to continue. Released in November, Surging Sparks is a Pikachu-centric expansion, and the recently released Prismatic Evolutions mirrors Sword & Shield’s most expensive set, Evolving Skies, which focuses on Eevee and its evolutions.

Future sets include Journey Together, which brings back the Trainer’s Pokemon mechanic, and there’s also a Team Rocket set in the pipeline. This is bringing collectors, new and old, to the hobby.

Brem, owner of Bremner TCG tells me, “The TCG has hit another peak in interest due to the recent sets and upcoming sets. Sets that should have been more popular in the past are now gaining traction because of this. This is causing prices to go up and products to become more scarce.”

He admits “as a store, it’s great,” but he has noticed “the occasional person who is more investment motivated than an actual collector,” which leads to another issue, and the one that is arguably damaging the hobby the most.

Investor-Bros, Scalpers, And Flippers

The Pokemon TCG has always been limited in supply, but during bubbles like this, that supply gets leaner. One of the reasons for this, collector Deggers tells me, is that people see the game as “a get-rich-quick scheme.”

There are undoubtedly people who use the Pokemon TCG to make money, and these people can be split into two groups, both as harmful as the other.

First up are the scalpers and flippers. These people buy in-demand product with the intention of selling them immediately at inflated prices, making a quick buck. There have been multiple examples of this in the last two weeks alone.

Pokemon Center Exclusive Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Boxes each contain an exclusive promo card featuring Eevee. The ETB, on its own, costs $60. The Eevee promo is already being sold for upwards of $100. The flippers make their money back with the promo and then still sell the Booster Packs separately for well above market value.

The upcoming Journey Together expansion is facing a similar plight. The Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Boxes were listed on the official Pokemon website at $60 last week, and scalpers are already trying to get $500 for them (although $150 seems to be closer to what they’re actually selling for).

Single cards aren’t out of flippers’ reach, either. It’s not uncommon for groups to buy up as much stock of a chosen card as possible, only to list them all at increased prices.

Scalpers and flippers create product scarcity. They make it so the regular collector struggles to purchase desirable items for RRP, and if they want them, they are forced to stump up their asking price. It’s a horrible situation.

People see the game as “a get-rich-quick scheme.”

Then you have the investors. These individuals will buy as much of an in-demand product as they can get their hands on. They’ll then store this product away for a period of time, be it a year, five, or ten. This, once again, takes product away from the general consumer.

While sealed products are preferential for long-term investors, it’s not uncommon for them to purchase many copies of limited cards, like the Van Gogh Pikachu, again driving prices up for genuine collectors.

One theory from these collectors I spoke to as to why investment is so high right now, alongside the fact that Pokemon is printing “home-run” sets, is the crypto market.

This recent surge in Pokemon TCG prices and stock issues goes almost hand-in-hand with the increase in price of many cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. On October 6, 2023, Bitcoin was trading at £47,166. Today, it’s at £86,242, an increase of 83 percent. There is some suggestion that those who made a bucketload of cash during this window are diversifying their portfolios and have seen Pokemon as a good asset to hold.

Collector Jai tells me, “The crypto markets are performing very well for people holding various currencies. These people end up withdrawing their profits and spending them on their hobbies, bringing with it the side who see it as another investment.”

Milamber, another collector, adds, “The wider markets (including crypto) doing well means Millennials have more money to put into hobbies. I see this as a small impact, though, and I don’t believe crypto-bros are a main driver, just one of many.”

With popular sets like the ones we’re seeing now, the long-term return on investment will likely be a lot higher.

The Rise Of The ‘Poke-Infuencer’

Since the last Pokemon TCG bubble, there has been a sharp increase in Pokemon-centric investing YouTube channels. These influencers often tell people how, when, and where to spend their money in order to maximize their profits. This is driving a whole new generation of investors to the hobby.

But the Poke-Influencer’s impact goes further than just telling people what to buy with the rise of platforms like Whatnot, a live-streaming sales platform where sellers can list products for a set cost, or auction them off during their streams.

Another collector, JS tells me, “TikTok and Whatnot streamers eat up an absurd amount of product every day, which drives up the market price. It’s basically turned a hobby into a gambling addiction for many. The demand is so high it doesn’t matter how much of the new sets are printed, they will instantly get eaten up because of the massive demand.”

It’s basically turned a hobby into a gambling addiction for many.

It seems Whatnot items are usually sold at seriously inflated prices. A very quick glance at Prismatic Evolutions listings showed me booster packs, which have an RRP of around £5.50 when taken from an ETB, selling for £11 a time, showing the severity of the problem.

Despite the prices, a proportion of the Pokemon community buy from Whatnot because of a) the scarcity of the product, or b) they want a streamer they watch to open a pack for them.

Deggers adds, “It’s predatory. These streamers know full well starting bids for packs at £1 is going to cause chaos. Nobody would have a problem if they were sensible and sold packs for what it actually cost them.”

It’s predatory. These streamers know full well starting bids for packs at £1 is going to cause chaos.

That’s only one way these platforms drive up the prices, though. In order to sell on Whatnot, these streamers need to source their products from somewhere. They often don’t have access to distributors, so instead employ tactics similar to scalpers and flippers, buying up as much in-demand product as possible, which they break down into individual packs and sell for unhealthy prices.

The prices of items on what is Prismatic Evolutions’ launch day sum these issues up better than I ever could. Individual cards are selling for over $2,000, and despite theoretically being available from brick and mortar stores, the Elite Trainer Boxes are still selling online at a 400 percent markup. The Pokemon TCG has a problem, and it’s not going away anytime soon.