Summary
- An analyst predicts that the Switch 2 will sell 4.3M units in the US in 2025, assuming it launches within the first half of the year.
- The analyst believes the Switch 2 will be strong, but PS5 may be on top for US console sales.
- Nintendo Switch 2 buzz is high, but success could depend on launch timing, hardware quality, and game lineup competitiveness.
Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella shares predictions that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell approximately 4.3 million units in 2025. By the end of 2017, the original Nintendo Switch had sold 4.8 million units, surpassing the company’s expectations at the time. To satisfy the high demand, Nintendo flew in copies of the Switch. Fans are hopeful that this time, Nintendo has anticipated these types of issues and planned accordingly.
Many gamers are waiting to see when Nintendo’s next system gets announced. The Switch 2 routinely trends on social media, often because people are just looking forward to its announcement, but this hype may not translate directly into sales. There are numerous factors that may decide how the Switch 2 fares in 2025, given it launches within the year. Key factors appear to be timing, as well as the console’s slate of games.
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Circana video game analyst Mat Piscatella shared that he expects the Nintendo Switch to sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming it launches within the first half of the year. Many expect the Nintendo Switch 2 to launch by April 2025, just ahead of summer, which would allow sales to surge during Japan’s Golden Week holiday period and the general festivities of the season worldwide.
Analyst Predicts 4.3M Switch 2 Sales in 2025
Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) – I have Nintendo’s next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).
— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z
Piscatella expands on these predictions, noting that in the United States, he believes the Switch 2 will account for 1/3 of all video game hardware unit sales, outside of Portable PC devices like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally. Overall. He notes an expectation of supply constraints for the Switch 2 hardware following huge initial demand, although uncertain of the manufacturing resources Nintendo has allocated for the system. It’s possible that Nintendo has stockpiled Switch 2 resources to prevent a product shortage that parallels the release of the original Switch, or that of the PS5.
Although Mat Piscatella believes the Switch 2 will sell well, he predicts that the PlayStation 5 will manage to stand at the top of US game console hardware sales. There is a lot of hype for the Nintendo Switch 2, which could help with sales. However, on top of other hotly anticipated titles that will launch on the PS5 this year, Grand Theft Auto 6 is currently expected for a 2025 release, and it could be a huge system-seller that might skip Nintendo systems. There’s plenty of excitement surrounding the Switch 2 though, and depending on how impressive the Switch 2 hardware is along with its launch lineup, it could lead the pack.
Nintendo Switch
The Nintendo Switch is a hybrid console launched in 2017, capable of being played in handheld mode or docked to a television. The Switch Lite, a handheld-only model, followed in 2019, with an OLED refresh coming in 2021.