RO16 Group B Preview: MaxPax, Reynor, Rogue, SKillous
Saturday, Dec 21 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) & Sunday, Dec 22 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
by Wax
The opening group of Master’s Coliseum saw Serral advance with a 3-0 record as expected while Astrea chased behind in second place. This weekend, we move on to Group B, where the race to advance projects to be much more competitive and unpredictable.
Enigmatic Protoss MaxPax comes in as the top seed of the group, but he remains difficult to evaluate despite his undeniable talent.
At first glance, he looks like one of Protoss’s best hopes to win a meaningful event for the first time in nearly two years. The online-only Master’s Coliseum seems tailor made for an online-only player like MaxPax, whose domination of weekly cups and other smaller online events has elevated him to #3 in the world according to Aligulac.com (behind only Serral and Clem). The problem is, Master’s Coliseum isn’t just another small online event—it’s one of the few $10k+ tier tournaments held in such a setting. And, when you check MaxPax’s track record in online events where there’s more than a few hundred bucks on the line, he looks less like a top player and more like another ‘very good’ one.
Consider the previous Master’s Coliseum #7. He narrowly escaped the Swiss-style group stage with a 3-2 record, and was promptly bounced from the playoffs with losses to herO (2-3) and Dark (0-4). He did better at Master’s Coliseum #6 by finishing top-six, but it didn’t seem like he had a serious chance to end Protoss’ title drought. Meanwhile, the softer EPT Europe regionals have gone somewhat better for MaxPax, as he achieved a pair of runner-up and one top-six finish during the 2023/24 EPT Season. However, the two second place finishes came with some asterisks, with one tournament lacking Serral due to his military service, and the other giving him a lucky bracket during ESL’s one-off flirtation with single-elimination.
Even online-only players can suffer from big tournament jitters, and I have to think MaxPax is dealing with that same, age-old affliction. Now, SC2 history shows that given enough time, most players will overcome such hurdles—Trap, Cure, and Creator are the names that come to mind from relatively recent vintage. I think MaxPax’s potential is greater than any of the previous trio, and he absolutely could be a legit championship contender at MC8 if he can play at his best. However, seeing is believing, and I’ve yet to see MaxPax unlock that level of play in a high-stakes event. That could be a problem as early as the group stages, as he faces three opponents who have considerable upside.
It goes without saying that MaxPax should be concerned about the world championship-winning duo of Reynor and Rogue. Sure, when you look at their recent performances, it’s clear that neither Zerg is playing close to their world champion level. Reynor was admittedly out of practice at HomeStory Cup 26, and didn’t seem to be all that perturbed about dropping out in the group stages. As for Rogue, he’s made a decent recovery since returning from military service in the spring, but his play remains rather inconsistent (and he was already inconsistent in his prime).
However, years ago, I promised myself I would never doubt Rogue again in an important match, no matter how poorly he was playing prior. He’s burned his haters too many times with his play-like-s*** to play-like-god turnarounds, and even the Republic of Korea military can’t make me question his abilities (also, military service is not the career-killer it used to be). Nevermind that he was eliminated in the group stage of his last Code S event, and that he fell out in the RO24 of EPT Spring—my belief is (mostly) unwavering.
Honestly, I feel similarly about Reynor. His career has some curious similarities with illustrious peers like INnoVation and Rogue, with all three winning their biggest paydays in an ‘out of nowhere’ fashion. No matter what the recent results look like for these guys, if there’s something meaningful to play for, you have to extend them the benefit of the doubt.
The question here is whether or not there is something to play for. Due to the similar format and the lack of anything else on the calendar, I’m treating Master’s Coliseum as being GSL-adjacent in terms of tournament coverage. But for players who are stuck in limbo, awaiting an ESL announcement, who knows how much they’ve bought into various community events? Reynor said in a vlog post that he plans to continue playing SC2 as long as there’s tournaments, but I have to wonder what his drive is like during an in-between period like this. When there’s no world championship to aim for, perhaps the auras of Rogue and Reynor must be reexamined.
Rounding out the group is SKillous, who’s been one of the more interesting player growth stories of the last few years. He’s gradually elevated his game to where he can place top four at mid-tier tournaments (HSC 24, StarsWar 11) when everything is clicking, but he also suffers from extreme inconsistency and has dropped out of the early rounds of many other events.
The strong version of SKillous showed up for the MC8 global qualifier, allowing him to 2-0 Solar and earn this main event spot. However, it’s basically a crapshoot as to what his level of play will be when it comes time to play in this group. SKillous actually beat MaxPax 2-1 just yesterday in the WardiTV Christmas tournament, which was a timely reminder of his upside. If the two legendary Zergs show less than legendary play, then even a 3-0 first place finish could be on the table for SKillous.
Predictions
Aligulac.com sees this group as fairly straight forward, with MaxPax favored to advance in first place while Reynor faces only a mild challenge from Rogue and SKillous in the race for second. However, I’m going to pick with my heart instead of my head, and say that the eternal class of Rogue and Reynor will see them through.
Is it because I really believe that they’re gonna lock in and treat this like a tournament of the highest caliber? Not really. But during this time of great uncertainty for StarCraft II, I want to believe a tournament Master’s Coliseum can rise to that level.
Reynor and Rogue to advance.