Summary
- The Nintendo Switch 2 is predicted to dominate the market in the next console generation, selling over 17 million units in the first year.
- This prediction of success is based on its early launch, the strong performance of the original Switch, and fans’ excitement for the new console.
- PlayStation is predicted to have a slight edge over Xbox, with Microsoft expected to focus more on software.
Industry analysts predict the Nintendo Switch 2 will win the next console generation. Much about Nintendo’s upcoming system remains a mystery, and even less information is available about the next Xbox and PlayStation iterations. Still, that hasn’t stopped the successor to the Switch from generating a lot of excitement within the industry.
The only certainty fans have about the upcoming console is that Nintendo will reveal the Switch 2 before March 2025 and that it will be backward compatible with Switch games. A lot of supposed details about its specs, price, layout, and even the size of its production run have emerged, but the validity of these leaks has yet to be confirmed. Rumors aside, though, a recent industry report claims that Nintendo’s hardware will have an edge over Xbox and Sony over the next few years.
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DFC Intelligence, a gaming and digital media industry research firm, projects Nintendo will lead the console market from 2025 through 2028, thanks to the Switch 2. According to the firm’s research, the second Switch will sell over 17 million units in its first year and move over 20 million each year afterward. While either Sony, Microsoft, or both will likely also launch a new system before 2028, the Switch 2’s earlier release will cement its status as the best-selling hardware of the generation. The original Switch surpassed the PS2 as the best-selling console of all time in the US in 2024, so it’s easy to see how its successor could outsell the competition.
Analysts Expect Nintendo to Lead Next Generation, Sony to Come in Second Place
The DFC report attributes the Switch 2’s projected lead to its early launch, the strong performance of the original Switch, and the fact that fans are excited about another console, given that it’s been almost eight years since the first Switch was released. As far as competition between Xbox and Sony goes, DFC predicts the next PlayStation will have a slight edge over anything from Microsoft, largely because of Sony’s dedicated fan base and a strong lineup of exclusive titles. That may not be surprising to some, either, as PlayStation accounts for four of the 10 best-selling consoles of all time.
DFC notes that while Microsoft may be floundering in terms of hardware, it’s set itself apart as a leader in software. As a result, the company may focus on this side of its business in the coming years, which could give Nintendo and Sony an even better shot at winning the generation. The report also mentions an important caveat to its bullish predictions about Switch 2 sales: Nintendo’s early lead hinges on the company being able to manufacture enough consoles. Rumors suggest that Nintendo is already mass-producing the Switch 2, so that may not prove an issue, but only time will tell.
Nintendo Switch
The Nintendo Switch is a hybrid console launched in 2017, capable of being played in handheld mode or docked to a television. The Switch Lite, a handheld-only model, followed in 2019, with an OLED refresh coming in 2021.