Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 launched into Xbox Game Pass, and many questioned how that decision might affect the game’s sales. Now, that picture is coming into focus, albeit only somewhat.
Circana analyst Mat Piscatella shared some key datapoints today that speak to the effect of Black Ops 6 launching on Game Pass in the US. He said it led to a “subscription spending boost,” as people opted to buy a Game Pass subscription instead of purchasing the game outright. Before this, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said Black Ops 6’s launch on Game Pass drove the biggest single-day sign-ups for a new Game Pass launch of all time.
Piscatella added that Microsoft’s decision to launch Black Ops 6 on Game Pass “shifted” the share of full-game sales to PlayStation. While Black Ops 6 might have helped Xbox become the most popular Call of Duty platform in a decade, for full-game sales, PlayStation remains on top (again, at least in the US, according to Circana).
In fact, PlayStation platforms made up 82% of Black Ops 6’s total console full-game dollar sales during October, Piscatella said. All roads lead back to Microsoft, though, as the Xbox company owns Call of Duty and makes money on every copy sold, regardless of the platform. An increasing share of sales on PlayStation benefits Sony, too, as the company takes its normal platform cut. Microsoft has promised to keep releasing Call of Duty on PlayStation platforms for at least the next decade.
What’s more, Piscatella said the data suggests launching Black Ops 6 on Game Pass did not result in a “massive cannibalization of sales” for the game. This has been an ongoing point of debate and discussion, and while some developers have reported cannibalization effects for Game Pass releases, others have observed different trends. Piscatella said there is no definitive answer right now for Call of Duty.
“Who knows, maybe there’s a benefit, maybe there’s a drawback, maybe it all comes out in the wash. Whatever it is, the data suggest (to me anyways) that it ain’t conclusive yet,” Piscatella said in response to questions about how bringing a new game to Game Pass could affect game sales.
Before this, analyst Michael Pachter told GI.biz that Microsoft putting Black Ops 6 could lead to up to six million in lost sales; he estimated that 25% of existing Game Pass subscribers would have bought it anyway. Pachter said Microsoft could see as many as four million new Game Pass subscribers thanks to Black Ops 6.
Microsoft itself previously admitted that with a former exclusive, Starfield, only releasing for console on Xbox was likely to result in millions in lost unit sales. The company said the same for Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, but whereas Starfield never came to PS5, The Great Circle is headed there in 2025.
Going back to Call of Duty, Piscatella also shared that Black Ops 6’s launch did not provide a “significant boost” to Xbox Series X|S hardware. Xbox hardware sales dropped 18% during October 2024, which was better than the declines for PS5 (-20%) and Switch (38%).
Microsoft is no longer even necessarily trying to sell you an Xbox, as the Xbox brand now means a lot more than just a box under your TV. That being said, consoles remain incredibly important to Microsoft and the company is making more of them.
The economic realities of Game Pass may never become clear, in part because Microsoft will not publicly share the terms of its deals with developers and publishers. At a higher level, Microsoft doesn’t even disclose Xbox console sales numbers anymore, as the company instead focuses on ambiguous “engagement” metrics that can be spun and positioned to Microsoft’s benefit.
Black Ops 6 was the No. 1 best-selling game of October 2024 in the US and is 2024’s No. 3 best-selling game overall after just a few days on sale.